Bitcoin’s value is stabilizing slightly above the $100,000 threshold after facing a strong rejection from the $116,000 resistance. While the volatility seems to be diminishing, there are indications of potential weakness in the BTC structure. Currently, buyers have not demonstrated significant signs of a comeback, and the recent decrease in open interest suggests a cautious market.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC has fallen below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, positioned near $110,000, signifying a bearish shift in short-term momentum. The price is currently hovering around the crucial $100,000 support level, which provided backing during prior corrections.

The RSI is nearing 36, indicating the market is approaching oversold conditions but hasn’t quite hit that mark yet. Should buyers fail to protect this level, we could see a further decline, with the next substantial support around $95,000. The daily structure appears heavy, and a recovery above the $108,000–$110,000 zone is required to revert to a bullish outlook.

Daily BTC Chart

The 4-Hour Chart

In the 4-hour timeframe, the market recently broke down from a rising wedge formation and retested it as resistance before continuing to decline further. Momentum is still weak, and any attempts to recover from the $100,000 area have not succeeded so far.

Price is maintaining just above the $100,000–$101,000 support block, but the overall structure remains unstable. A loss of this level could potentially lead to a swift decline towards the next demand zone around $95,000.

4H BTC Chart

Sentiment Analysis

Open Interest

Recently, open interest has witnessed a significant downturn, plummeting from above $45 billion to under $33 billion in just a few weeks. This decline points to a broad market de-leveraging, likely fueled by liquidations of aggressive long positions. Such adjustments often eliminate excessive speculation; however, the absence of a recovery in open interest suggests that traders remain cautious.

Without new leverage entering the market, participants may be holding off until clearer price movements emerge. This sentiment coincides with the erratic price behavior, indicating that the market is still on high alert, despite existing technical support zones holding for the time being.