The cryptocurrency market might soon experience a recovery as the US Senate has come to an agreement on a budget bill aimed at ending the ongoing government shutdown, as reported by Politico.

Pending legislation designed to finance the government appears to have enough backing to surpass the 60-vote requirement, according to Politico. This marks Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s 15th effort to garner Democratic backing for a bill that has already been approved by the House, bringing the record-length 40-day shutdown closer to resolution.

However, a formal vote is still required to ratify the agreement.

Uncertainty surrounding the timing of the government’s reopening has significantly impacted Bitcoin (BTC) and the larger crypto market, preventing them from rebounding. Initially, Bitcoin reached a peak of $126,080 six days into the shutdown on October 6, but has since dropped over 17% to $104,370, according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin’s decline last month saw a drop in double digits following President Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China, which sent ripples through the market.

Bitcoin Price Change Bitcoin’s change in price since October 1. Source: CoinGecko

Bitcoin Soared 266% Following Last Government Shutdown

The previous US government shutdown lasted from late December 2018 to late January 2019 during Trump’s first term. After it concluded on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin surged over 265%, rising from $3,550 to $13,000 in the subsequent five months.

Predicting the Shutdown’s End

Bettors on Polymarket anticipate that the government shutdown will be resolved this coming Thursday, with a 54% probability predicted between Tuesday and Friday.

The likelihood was just 27% a day prior.

Polymarket Odds Polymarket odds on when the US government shutdown will end. Source: Polymarket

Similar predictions from competitor platform Kalshi estimate that the shutdown will resolve on Friday, marking the 44th day of the shutdown.

This optimism follows Trump’s announcement that most Americans will receive a $2,000 dividend sourced from tariff revenues, with approximately 85% of adults qualifying, excluding those with higher incomes.