On Sunday, President Donald Trump revealed a plan stating that a majority of Americans would be eligible for a $2,000 “dividend” funded by tariff revenues, criticizing opposition to his extensive tariff policies.
“A dividend of at least $2,000 a person, not including high-income individuals, will be disbursed to everyone,” Trump declared on Truth Social.
The US Supreme Court is presently discussing the legality of these tariffs, and most prediction market traders are betting against court approval.
Source of Trump’s announcement
Source: Donald Trump on Truth Social
Traders on Kalshi placed the odds of the Supreme Court endorsing the policy at only 23%, while Polymarket traders estimated the odds at 21%. Trump questioned:
“Is the President of the United States not allowed to impose a basic tariff on a foreign country for national security reasons, while also being authorized by Congress to halt all trade with that country?”
Investors viewed the announcement as an economic stimulus that could enhance cryptocurrency markets as portions of this stimulus influence the financial landscape, though there are concerns about potential long-term effects of the proposed dividend.
Proposed economic stimulus to uplift asset markets, yet bears high costs
Investment professionals at The Kobeissi Letter projected that around 85% of American adults might receive the $2,000 checks, based on data from prior stimulus checks.
Despite part of the stimulus likely driving asset prices higher, The Kobeissi Letter cautions that any economic stimulus’s ultimate long-term consequence could be inflation of the fiat currency, which would erode purchasing power.
Economic impact of stimulus
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
“If you don’t invest the $2,000 in assets, it will lose value through inflation or merely pay off interest on loans, ending up with banks,” remarked Bitcoin analyst, author, and advocate Simon Dixon.
“Stocks and Bitcoin only respond positively to stimulus measures,” asserted investor and market analyst Anthony Pompliano, referencing Trump’s announcement.
