Unexpected Shift in Bitcoin Futures May Surprise Traders: Are We Seeing a Market Bottom?

Bitcoin futures have recently turned negative for the first time since March, indicating a notable change in trader attitudes as market conditions worsen.

The Bitcoin futures-to-spot basis is now showing a negative figure, which signals a decrease in the willingness of traders to take risks, now pricing BTC’s short-term future at a significantly lower level.

Key Points:

A negative Bitcoin futures–spot basis indicates caution among investors.
Historical internal exchange spikes are indicative of volatility and liquidity stresses.

Bitcoin Futures-Spot Basis Indicates Divergent Paths

The occurrence of a negative basis often arises during market corrections or as preparations for potential volatility take place. Currently, Bitcoin is operating within the “Base Zone,” a price range typically associated with increased selling pressure or diminished exposure. Both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are on a downward trend, affirming a bearish outlook in the futures market.

Bitcoin basis: future-spot (%). Source: CryptoQuant

However, historical data adds complexity to the situation. Since August 2023, previous instances of the 7-day SMA turning negative have coincided with a vicinity for market recovery during bullish phases. If the market has not entirely shifted into bearish territory, this could act as an early recovery signal.

On the other hand, if market conditions reflect those of January 2022, this signal might denote the onset of a more profound decline. A rebound above the 0%–0.5% basis range would signal the first indication of rekindled confidence among traders.

Bitcoin futures-spot basis comparison between trends. Source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, data shows a resetting of the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio to around 0.3, pointing out that the market’s previous overheating levels have cooled down. A lower leverage ratio mitigates the risk of forced liquidations, indicating a healthier futures landscape.

If bullish momentum reemerges, this improved leverage scenario could prove beneficial, providing traders with the flexibility to engage in greater risk-taking without facing the instability experienced earlier this year.

Bitcoin-USDT futures leveraged ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

The Quest for Bitcoin’s Bottom Continues

Crypto analyst Pelin Ay mentioned that the in-house flow within exchanges reinforces the ongoing downside narrative, measuring Bitcoin transferred between internal wallets — usually for operational or liquidity adjustments. Although this does not directly indicate selling, pronounced spikes generally align with turbulent market conditions and significant movements by large investors.

Bitcoin exchange in-house flow on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

From late 2024 to early 2025, the market witnessed substantial internal transfer spikes closely followed by rapid price increases, only to be reversed by steep corrections. This pattern was repeated in May-June 2025 when BTC rose from $60,000 to $90,000, underscoring its bullish correlation.

Currently, this metric is peaking again, surpassing the usual range of 5-10 in early November, as it corresponds with a sharp decline in BTC’s price from above $110,000 to $95,000. Historically, such increases signal liquidity challenges, heightened volatility, and price pressures.

In light of the combination of a negative basis, increasing internal flows, and accelerating downside pressure, Bitcoin seems set to continue its search for a market bottom.

This article does not qualify as investment advice. All trading and investment activities bear risks, and readers are encouraged to perform their own research prior to making decisions.