Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing its most active week for large transactions in 2025, with over 29,000 transfers exceeding $1 million. This increase in whale activity coincides with the cryptocurrency testing crucial support levels, as prices have fallen to approximately $91,700, raising questions about whether this represents a final shakeout before a recovery.

A Market Divergence

Despite a generally negative sentiment in the market, data from analytics firm Santiment has revealed more than 102,900 Bitcoin transactions valued above $100,000 and over 29,000 transactions over $1 million this week. This surge has been dubbed the most active whale week of 2025, indicating a shift from selling to accumulating.

Evidently, wealthy investors are leveraging the recent price declines to make substantial purchases. Notably, trader Kyle Chassé pointed out an extraordinary transaction involving 1,300 BTC, equivalent to about $121 million, purchased from the custodian BitGo.

Moreover, on-chain analysis from MorenoDV_ suggests that a particular group of long-term, “price-insensitive” holders has amassed 186,000 BTC since October 6. Although this marks the largest accumulation spike in recent cycles, it has resulted in decreasing prices rather than triggering a rally, creating a rare anomaly that has puzzled market analysts. At the time of writing, BTC had declined by roughly 28% from its all-time high of around $126,000 set on October 6, with an 11.5% fall in just the last week.

Interpreting the Signals

The mixed signals have led to diverse interpretations within the market. Some analysts view the aggressive accumulation as a base for a considerable rally once retail investors capitulate and supply becomes scarce. Conversely, others caution against a potential “catching falling knives” scenario, suggesting that further downside could occur if key support levels give way. According to technical analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin is currently testing the 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on its monthly chart, a critical level that has historically separated bull markets from bear markets. Maintaining prices above this threshold could imply that the bull market structure remains intact.

Nevertheless, commentators like Axel Adler Jr. have pointed out the bearish pressure in the futures market alongside a market sentiment index reading of -89, indicating maximum stress and complicating recovery prospects without a positive catalyst. His assessment aligns with another analysis suggesting that the current pattern resembles a shakeout observed in Q1 2025, possibly positioning the market at the brink of final downturn stages before reversing.