Bitcoin's Stability Mirrors 2025 Cycle; Final Downturn Might Be Imminent

After a notable sell-off, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $91,500. Analyst Axel Bitblaze suggests that the ongoing downturn appears to mirror a cycle seen in early 2025. In January of that year, Bitcoin reached its peak before experiencing a 17% decline, even as the S&P 500 continued to grow. A month later, the S&P 500’s peak led to a simultaneous plunge in both markets, resulting in a 25% drop for Bitcoin and a 21% drop for the index.

One Last Bearish Trigger?

Bitblaze pointed out that current market conditions closely resemble those from early 2025. Bitcoin peaked on October 6 and has since fallen approximately 18%, while the S&P 500 has only recently started to decline. According to his analysis, the sequence follows a familiar pattern: Bitcoin starts to dip without immediate visible reasons, equities lag behind, and then an eventual market downturn occurs, followed by a potential recovery in Bitcoin ahead of equities. He cautions that markets might be waiting for one final bearish trigger, which seems to be in the process of forming, as evidenced by rising Japanese bond yields and liquidity issues at smaller US banks.

“So yeah… it feels like we’re close to the end of the damage, not the start. But one more shakeout wouldn’t surprise me at all.” - Axel Bitblaze

Bearish Forces Still Dominate

Although some short-term indicators have slightly improved, Axel Adler Junior believes the Bitcoin market remains bearish. The Bull-Bear Structure Index has rebounded from a critical -41.89 to -27.82, indicating less bearish pressure but still below the -25% threshold, with negative trends persisting.

Analysts are concerned that the current market conditions, especially a negative Coinbase Premium Gap, reflect weakened institutional activity, resulting in retail trading dominating the market dynamics. This could heighten volatility and further selling pressure until larger institutional buyers return to the market.