The current state of the crypto market appears stable, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, who argues that the absence of euphoric levels in the market reduces the chances of a major crash. Alden stated, “We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation.”

Alden discussed these insights on a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, emphasizing that the market cycle might extend longer than anticipated due to broader macroeconomic factors rather than the usual four-year cycle influenced by Bitcoin halving.

This perspective aligns with opinions from other professionals in the industry, such as Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, who likewise rejected the four-year cycle theory and mentioned that the market might remain stable for several years.

However, not everyone shares Alden’s optimism. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, foresees a retracement of Bitcoin prices by 65% to 70% within the next two years.

Alden pointed out that market outcomes rarely match investors’ extremes, stating, “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out.”

Bitcoin has experienced a downward trend since reaching a record high of $125,100 on October 5, dropping to as low as $80,700 before slightly recovering to $85,710 at publication.

Many traders had anticipated a significant year-end rally with new highs; however, the market sentiment has waned, as illustrated by Arthur Hayes’s previous prediction of Bitcoin possibly hitting $250,000.

Amid market fluctuations, Alden stressed that investors should not assume that bull markets are guaranteed: “No one is owed a bull market.” She speculates that Bitcoin may reclaim the $100,000 threshold by 2026, potentially setting new highs within that year or in 2027.