Bitcoin’s price is in a precarious position as it nears a critical closing point under $90,000 amidst swirling market sentiments. The recent sell-off has left traders cautiously hopeful for a rebound, projecting a potential return above the $100,000 threshold. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s latest ‘death cross’—a technical indicator suggesting bearish tendencies—reminds investors of the need for urgency in the market.
Is Bitcoin Emerging from the Wreckage?
Bitcoin’s recent low of $80,500 indicates lingering uncertainty as the November monthly close approaches. Reports show that the $88,000 level is currently acting as a significant barrier.
BTC/USD one-hour chart
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Traders appear divided; while certain predictions lean bearish, there’s an undercurrent of cautious optimism. Trader BitBull remarked, “Bitcoin has reclaimed the 4H SMA-20 for the first time in 2 weeks.” This indicates that a weekly close above $92,000 could pave the way for a bullish rally towards the ranges of $105K to $110K.
BTC/USD four-hour chart
BTC/USD four-hour chart with 20SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Daan Crypto Trades expressed optimism surrounding the weekly structure, despite previous support failures. He noted that Bitcoin has moved outside of its Bull Market Support Band, creating a notable gap that must be closed. Michaël van de Poppe articulated, “These market formations typically signal bottoming trends, and given the current indicators, it wouldn’t surprise me to see prices range between $90-96K next week,” and referenced the impact of the FTX collapse on past market performance.
BTC/USD three-day chart
BTC/USD three-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Enigma of the Death Cross
As Bitcoin navigates through this turbulent phase, the implications of its recent ‘death cross’—formed when shorter moving averages fall below longer ones—may dictate the forthcoming price movements. According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, prior occurrences have historically coincided with local market lows.
Cowen warned, however, that a lack of timely action might lead to further declines. He emphasized the importance of seeing a rebound within a week to avert prolonged bearish trends.
BTC/USD one-day chart
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50, 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
A Shift in Investor Dynamics
Recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price has triggered a transition in investor behavior, particularly marked by a notable shift of assets from long-term holders to short-term speculators. Research from CryptoQuant shows long-term holders are offloading assets, which are eagerly absorbed by short-term traders seeking quick gains.
BTC LTH/STH 30-day net position change
Bitcoin LTH/STH 30-day net position change (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
With the backdrop of Thanksgiving week, the upcoming U.S. economic data release is keenly anticipated—traders must navigate these data points, which could significantly influence market sentiment.
Fed target rate probabilities for December FOMC meeting
Fed target rate probabilities for December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
As a warning, the latest sentiment indicators show a mixed picture, with crypto markets facing a cautious rebound from their lowest readings of the year, potentially signaling a broader recovery.
Fear & Greed Index data
Fear & Greed Index data (screenshot). Source: Feergreedmeter
This suggests that while Bitcoin and its accompanying sentiments are volatile, traders must remain vigilant as traditional market factors and new financial data intertwine.
