Bitcoin is currently experiencing significant price fluctuations after failing to maintain support above crucial trend levels. The cryptocurrency is trading near $86,000 following a steep decline below $81,000 last week, although it has seen a modest recovery since then.

Price Rejected at Major Resistance

Latest movements show that Bitcoin tested the 50-week Exponential Moving Average and a long-term descending trendline, both acting as hurdles. Unfortunately, it couldn’t stay above these levels and was forced back down. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that the alignment of the 50-week EMA and the macro downtrend makes this zone a challenging one for prices to break through.

The combinations of rejection at these critical levels and the formation of lower highs have provided further incentives for market caution. In past cycles, such patterns have often indicated the beginnings of extended downtrends.

Bitcoin Analysis Source: Rekt Capital/X

Additionally, Bitcoin fell into a demand range around $85,000–$86,000, which had supported upward price movements earlier this year. After dropping below this threshold, Bitcoin managed to recover but is still hovering slightly above it.

Analyst Rekt Capital elaborated that if a weekly closure is achieved above $86,000, this could pave the way for an ascent towards $93,000.

“If price rejects at $93K, we could see fluctuations between $86K and $93K in the short term.”

Monthly MACD Turns Bearish Again

Another critical factor under observation is the monthly MACD, which has recently shifted to a bearish formation. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out, “The last three times the monthly MACD turned bearish, Bitcoin dropped about 60% on average.” If this trend holds, Bitcoin could decline as low as $40,000 based on its previous peak of around $110,000.

The last three times the monthly MACD turned bearish, Bitcoin dropped about 60% on average.

In previous cycles, MACD crossovers coincided with significant corrections, leaving traders vigilant for further signs of downward momentum. Furthermore, numerous long-term Bitcoin holders are beginning to shift large amounts of coins, adding pressure to market conditions during already challenging periods. Meanwhile, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rise again, some traders believe this could provide short-term support for asset values. However, unless Bitcoin reclaims resistance above $93,000, anxiety over a more extensive correction is likely to linger.