Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at approximately $87,000 as of November 25, with indicators from both on-chain and derivatives suggesting that the ongoing bear market may soon hit a critical turning point.

Analysts believe there exists a potential recovery range between $96,000 and $99,000. This is attributed to weak investors exiting the market and an upcoming shift towards liquidity-driven moves rather than narratives.

Indices Suggest Bearish Fatigue As Current Price Trails Fair Value

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. indicated on Tuesday that the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index has remained negatively aligned since November 11, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

Nonetheless, a near-term reversal seems to be underway, with the index improving from a deep -43% to around -20%. This improvement signals a notable decrease in bearish momentum.

Conversely, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index is currently caught in a bearish zone at 41, below the neutral or bullish range (45-55) that Adler identifies. Until this threshold is exceeded, he notes, “upward momentum is doubtful.”

Additionally, the fair-value line is currently set near $99,000, revealing an $11,000 gap from the current price, thus projecting a recovery target between $96,000 and $99,000, assuming sentiment enhances.

Market observer Daan Crypto Trades observed that the Coinbase premium, which has been persistently negative, moved closer to neutral following significant selling hitting a local low last Friday.

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Despite these developments, the immediate market structure appears tenuous. Titan of Crypto has identified $88,700 as the initial level bulls need to reclaim. Analyst Ed_NL has highlighted a resistance zone around $93,500, which may either limit a three-leg upturn prior to further lows or establish a base for a potential upward surge, should buyers regain traction.

Recent Market Activity

Recently, Bitcoin gained slightly, showing a 1% increase over the past day. However, the digital currency remains down across other time frames, with a nearly 5% decrease over the past week and about 18% over two weeks.

In addition, it has lost 23% of its value this month, currently sitting roughly 30% lower than its record high of over $126,000 from October. This recent decline has been characterized by significant institutional selling, particularly among the largest BTC holders, who have been taking profits and creating ongoing challenges for any vigorous rally.

Data from Santiment indicates an uptick in wallets holding 100 BTC or more, which has increased by 0.47% since November 11, resulting in 91 new wallets entering this category. This reflects that accumulation is occurring primarily among mid-sized whale holders (10 to 1,000 BTC), rather than the largest holders.