Bitcoin’s price has hit a snag as traders weigh the implications of an impending $14 billion options expiry on Friday. The data suggests that some bullish traders are setting their sights on elevated prices.

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Key Highlights:

• The upcoming $14 billion BTC options expiry leans towards neutral-to-bearish positions, as many call (buy) strikes are set above $91,000, which could pressure bullish traders.
• Despite previous losses, Bitcoin traders have purchased call options anticipating year-end prices nearing $100,000, indicating ongoing bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) suffered a drop on Tuesday after failing to sustain the $89,200 mark reached the previous day. There is growing apprehension among traders that the $14 billion BTC options expiry on Friday could amplify bearish sentiment, further fueled by disappointing private employment figures and a dip in US consumer confidence.

Friday aggregate BTC call (buy) options open interest, BTC. Source:

The cumulative BTC call options open interest is pegged at 104,300 BTC, equivalent to about $9.12 billion based on current market rates. However, the recent 23% fall in Bitcoin over the past 30 days has taken many bulls by surprise, with a staggering 84% of these positions set above the $91,000 level. Should the market price remain around current levels, these contracts risk expiring useless.

Friday aggregate BTC put (sell) options open interest, BTC. Source:

Currently, the put (sell) options open interest is 67,877 BTC, valued at $5.92 billion. Even though it is 35% smaller than call open interest, the put positions appear more in sync with current market sentiments, as about 31% are set at $84,500 or below. Thus, even if Bitcoin manages to recover some of its recent losses by November 28, the probabilities lean towards neutral-to-bearish outcomes.

Investor confidence has been further shaken after the ADP reported a loss of around 13,500 jobs weekly across US private companies over the past month. This labor market slowdown is an added hurdle for an economy driven by consumer spending.

A recent report from the US Conference Board revealed that consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November, a significant fall from the previous month’s 95.5. Expectations surrounding income and business have also declined, remaining substantially below the 80% neutral threshold for the tenth consecutive month, according to Yahoo Finance.

Weak Economic Indicators Raise Hopes for Fed Intervention

While the negative economic figures impact investor outlook, they could also increase the chances of the Federal Reserve reconsidering its monetary policy stance. Following these reports, gold prices increased by 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index saw a 1.9% rise, as traders anticipated further liquidity measures from the US Treasury aimed at stabilizing the economy.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump signed the “Genesis Mission” executive order, focused on accelerating AI development and addressing the perceived risks associated with energy shortages and long-term financing needs, in light of the potential strain large-scale high-performance computing facilities could impose on credit markets.

Bitcoin options open interest change past 48 hours at Deribit, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch

In response to these developments, Bitcoin traders have recently ramped up year-end call option positions within the $100,000 to $112,000 range, signaling a persistence of medium-term optimism despite the recent price fluctuations.

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$89,000: The Crucial Level for Bitcoin’s Momentum

Here are five potential scenarios for the upcoming November BTC options expiry based on the current price patterns:

1. Between $85,000 and $87,000: The net outcome favors put (sell) instruments by $1.9 billion.
2. Between $87,001 and $88,000: The net outcome favors put (sell) instruments by $800 million.
3. Between $88,001 and $89,000: A balanced outcome between call and put options.
4. Between $89,001 and $90,000: The net outcome favors call (buy) instruments by $600 million.
5. Between $90,001 and $92,000: The net outcome favors call (buy) instruments by $3.8 billion.

It might be too soon to completely disregard bullish BTC options strategies. Investor sentiment closely mirrors macroeconomic circumstances and expectations of potential stimulus efforts from central banks globally.