Bitcoin is currently deviating from its usual strong performance pattern in November, yet analysts from Bitfinex believe that demand could return imminently.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s (BTC) strongest month, showing an average return of 40.82%, as per CoinGlass. However, October ended with a decline of 3.69%, which is contrary to the usual average growth of around 19.92%, prompting concerns over the reliability of seasonal trends.

“We are also on track to close November in the red,” stated analysts at Bitfinex, noting that the cryptocurrency’s price is currently 20.60% lower than at the month’s start.

October and November have typically been the two strongest months for Bitcoin. Source: CoinGlass

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $87,305, according to CoinMarketCap. The analysts at Bitfinex pointed out that this quarter’s traditional seasonal analysis hasn’t held true.

Increased Interest from Bitcoin Whales

The market’s mixed signals have left traders puzzled. For instance, Merlin The Trader remarked earlier this month that the negative sentiment following October’s drop might actually set the stage for a strong November.

“Low sentiment. Bullish seasonality. The perfect setup," Merlin remarked in a post.

Bitcoin has declined by 7.17% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

According to Bitfinex analysts, this marks only the third time since early 2024 that Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the short-term holders’ cost-basis model’s lower band.

The average price realized by Bitcoin short-term holders, defined as those retaining their Bitcoin for less than 155 days, is $86,787 according to CoinGlass.

Many Investors Feeling the Heat

The recent price drop has been attributed to a lack of market vigor, as buying activity around the $106,000 and $118,000 thresholds was much heavier than average.

As a result, a significant segment of holders is now reportedly “capitulating at a loss.”

Bitfinex analysts indicated that the crypto market now confronts two potential paths: a robust resurgence in demand or a longer, possibly deeper accumulation stage.

However, signs indicate that interest among Bitcoin whales is gradually increasing once more. The crypto sentiment platform, Santiment, reported that the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has increased by 0.47% (91 wallets) since November 11.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding seasonal trends, December has historically been quieter for Bitcoin, with average gains of 4.75% since 2013.

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