Ethereum (ETH) traders are quietly increasing leverage, as recent futures data indicates a significant change in market dynamics as ETH approaches a crucial technical level.

Key points:

• Ether leads other major crypto assets with a futures-to-spot ratio of 6.84.
• Traders in derivatives are reallocating risk towards ETH, while Bitcoin’s open interest is decreasing.
• The market structure remains positive, with bulls targeting a potential rise to $3,390 if key levels shift successfully.

Increased Attention on ETH Futures

Recent figures from CryptoQuant revealed that Ether’s futures-to-spot ratio on Binance jumped from 5 to 6.84, marking a significant rotation in market behavior and showing a predilection for leveraged positions rather than spot holdings.

Binance Futures/Spot Ratio for BTC, ETH, XRP. Source: CryptoQuant

In comparison, Bitcoin and Solana have ratios of 4 and 4.3 respectively, indicating that ETH is positioned as the most aggressively oriented major asset in the market. This divergence hints at expectations for increased ETH volatility or upcoming catalysts.

Onchain data from Binance emphasizes a notable decline in Bitcoin open interest over the past two weeks, while ETH’s open interest has only shown a mild retraction of 0.47% daily. This suggests a shift of risk capital from BTC toward ETH opportunities.

Open Interest Change on Binance for BTC, ETH. Source: CryptoQuant

Divergence Among ETH Traders

With ETH crossing $3,000 this week, opinions among analysts vary on whether this increase in derivative pressures can result in a sustained breakout.

• Trader Scient noted that ETH’s setup is already surpassing Bitcoin, highlighting a reinforced support level near $2,800. He anticipates that this zone will draw buyers on a retest, potentially pushing toward $3,050 and the key liquidity level at $3,390.

Ether’s four-hour chart analysis by Scient. Source: X

On the other hand, Lab Trading analyst Ken cautions that the short-term outlook remains bearish. He observes that ETH has repeatedly rejected the four-hour, 100-EMA level in November, warning that without $3,000 becoming support, the market may face additional downward risk.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Kingpin Crypto identifies a potential ‘Thanksgiving lull’ as a launchpad for upward movement, citing the price action reacting off significant retracement levels and supports, hinting at an anticipated ‘Ethereum Santa rally’ towards the $3,300 range in December, especially as Bitcoin dominance wanes.

This overview does not offer investment advice. All trading does involve risk, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.