In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, veteran trader Alessio Rastani discussed his optimistic view on Bitcoin (BTC), asserting that there exists a 75% likelihood of a short-term rally.

Given Bitcoin’s recent drop from a record high and the prevailing market sentiment sinking into deep fear, many are predicting a significant downturn. However, Rastani argues that this market behavior might not necessarily indicate the onset of a prolonged bear market.

He points out that historical data suggests this type of market setup has led to strong rallies approximately 75% of the time, especially following ‘death cross’ patterns that many traders misinterpret as signaling a bearish trend.

Rastani highlights extreme sentiment indicators, technical oversold conditions, and a strong correlation with the stock market as positive signs that suggest a recovery could be on the horizon. He notes that Bitcoin’s recent peak does not resemble previous ‘blow-off tops,’ signaling that it may not be the ultimate high of this market cycle.

Despite this positive outlook, Rastani acknowledges the dangers of relying exclusively on market timing cycles, emphasizing that price action gives a markedly different narrative.

For deeper insights into his analysis and a visual explanation of the charts, catch the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel.

Related: Tom Lee moderates his $250K Bitcoin forecast, indicating year-end ATH is now merely a ‘possibility’.