Veteran analyst Alessio Rastani makes a significant prediction, asserting that Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a substantial upward movement. He offers this promising forecast with Bitcoin trading at approximately $91,000, having risen over 6% in the past week, yet still falling nearly 28% short of its all-time high (ATH) exceeding $126,000 from October.

Rastani’s confidence stems from a classic technical indicator combined with a strikingly negative market sentiment, which he believes primes the market for a strong recovery.

Why Rastani Expects a Rebound

In a recent interview, Rastani indicated that many traders are prematurely declaring a bear market based solely on timing models and the sharp decline from the October ATH. He argues that market price trends and emotional sentiment convey a different narrative.

He analyzed every Bitcoin death cross, where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average, dating back to 2011. His findings reveal that approximately 75% of these instances coincided with significant market lows, with Bitcoin generally experiencing positive returns over the next one to three months.

Rastani highlighted that this pattern is more reliable when the death cross occurs soon after an ATH, similar to the signal from November 15. Furthermore, sentiment has swung to a point where Bitcoin is described as “extremely hated.” The Fear & Greed Index, for instance, has lingered in extreme fear for several weeks, with social media rife with predictions that prices could plummet to as low as $10,000.

For Rastani, such widespread despair typically signals the concluding phases of a correction, where nervous investors capitulate after acquiring positions near market peaks. He anticipates a 15-20% bounce in prices over the upcoming weeks, with a possibility of reaching new highs in early 2026 rather than by the year’s end.

In Rastani’s opinion, the current downturn is merely a correction within a larger upward trend, particularly given that Bitcoin is maintaining long-term support levels and the weekly relative strength index (RSI) indicates it is heavily oversold.

Mixed On-chain Signals Caution Bitcoin Bulls

Other market analysts have adopted a more reserved approach regarding predicting a market bottom, especially as key on-chain metrics such as the 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios remain negative, indicating many traders are still at a loss.

Additionally, large holders possessing between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been reducing their exposure for six consecutive weeks, casting doubt on a sustainable rebound to six-figure prices. Derivatives data also portrays a delicate situation, with Alphractal founder Joao Wedson recently describing Bitcoin as “one of the most leveraged assets in history,” noting that perpetual futures open interest peaked in October at nearly five times the highs seen in 2021.

Currently, Binance and Bybit dominate this leveraged environment, with long positions representing approximately 72% of the total value.