Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, asserts that perpetual futures traded on crypto exchanges will significantly outpace traditional stock exchanges. He believes that stock price determination will evolve to 24/7 markets based on cryptocurrency platforms.

This prediction emerges as U.S. and Asian exchanges, including CBOE and SGX, prepare to launch their perpetual products by the end of 2025. Hayes describes this as a pivotal moment for traditional finance, warning that existing exchanges must adopt the perpetual model used in crypto markets, or risk losing liquidity and relevance to faster, adaptable crypto venues and decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

Shift Towards Perpetual Futures

In his recent writings, Hayes revisited the impact of BitMEX’s perpetual swap innovation—an untimed futures-like product that transformed crypto trading by concentrating liquidity into a singular “delta one” contract that closely reflects spot prices while enabling high leverage.

Hayes argues that this model, paired with communal loss structures and insurance funds, caters to the retail trader’s desire for significant leverage and deep liquidity without the risk of incurring debts beyond their initial margin in unfavorable trades.

According to him, this approach is beginning to influence equity markets. A notable mention is Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 protocol, which facilitated a company called XYZ in launching a Nasdaq 100 equity perpetual contract that is already boasting daily trade volumes exceeding $100 million.

He envisions equity perpetuals becoming the premier financial product of 2026, with both centralized and decentralized exchanges rushing to introduce them by the close of next year.

Regulatory Changes and Future Outlook

Hayes also indicated that changes in the U.S. regulatory environment, newly favorable under President Trump’s administration, signal a potential increase in crypto-friendly initiatives following the tumultuous aftermath of the FTX collapse. This development may encourage global regulators to adopt a similar approach, bolstering exchanges like SGX in their endeavors to launch perpetual products.

Why Perpetuals Might Overtake Traditional Derivatives

Hayes firmly believes that by the end of this decade, the leading derivatives for major U.S. indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, will be crypto exchange-traded perpetuals, not futures from the CME or other established markets. He cites constraints faced by traditional clearinghouses, including under-funded guarantee funds and strict leverage regulations, which hinder their capacity to keep pace with the ever-accelerating information landscape.

In his perspective, perpetual swaps have revolutionized this system by allowing traders to use less collateral for substantial exposure, thus reducing the necessity of holding large amounts with an exchange—an increasingly sensitive matter in an industry marked by hacks and failures.

While Hayes continues to navigate controversies in trading, recent patterns indicate his substantial divestments in cryptocurrencies including ETH and others, contrary to his previous statements about holding onto his ETH investments. Notably, he has also commented positively on privacy coin ZEC, which has shown significant returns against the broader altcoin market.

“Adapt or die” is the mantra for traditional market players in this evolving landscape, as Hayes suggests a future dominated by crypto derivatives.
“Adapt or die” is a phrase suggesting that markets must evolve or face irrelevance.