Several cryptocurrency-related stocks experienced significant gains on Friday as the probability of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December reached a remarkable 87% on Polymarket, the highest prediction this month.
Notable increases were seen among major U.S.-listed Bitcoin mining companies, namely Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining, each showcasing impressive double-digit gains over the past week.
Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket
Yahoo Finance reported that Circle, the issuer of USDC, rose nearly 10% in early trading. Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase also saw slight upticks.
Bitcoin’s value also increased by around 7% this week, recovering from a drop to about $82,000 on November 21, as per CoinGecko data.
Top 10 Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin Mining Stock
This month’s fluctuations in the prediction market have largely stemmed from comments by Federal Reserve officials. On October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a December rate cut was ’not a foregone conclusion,’ which investors interpreted as a hawkish statement, suggesting potential delays in cuts.
However, sentiment shifted on November 17 when Fed Governor Christopher Waller recommended that the central bank consider a rate reduction next month, stating that ’the labor market is still weak and near stall speed’ and that inflation is ‘relatively close’ to the Fed’s 2% target.
Prediction Markets Expand as Demand Surges
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable users to bet on real-world event outcomes, have seen significant growth this year. On November 13, Polymarket entered a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to become the official prediction market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championships and Zuffa Boxing. Shortly thereafter, they teamed up with North American fantasy sports operator PrizePicks.
That same month, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, increasing its valuation to $11 billion, as per reports from TechCrunch. This funding round followed an earlier $300 million raise in October.
Moreover, recent reports suggested that Coinbase is developing its own prediction market platform, as tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong shared screenshots of an unreleased site potentially linked to Coinbase Financial Markets, backed by Kalshi.
Source: Jane Manchun Wong
On Wednesday, Robinhood announced that prediction markets have quickly emerged as one of its fastest-growing revenue streams, with over one million users trading nine billion contracts since launching the product in March through Kalshi.
