Bitcoin appears to have strong potential for growth as its current pricing diverges from expected macroeconomic trends. According to crypto researcher André Dragosch, this setup mirrors the extreme conditions witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Dragosch remarked, “The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID.” This refers to March 2020, when concerns surrounding the pandemic led to Bitcoin’s price plummeting from about $8,000 to under $5,000.

Dragosch emphasized that Bitcoin is already reflecting a recessionary growth outlook. He mentioned that alongside global economic constraints, which included the tightening of US Federal Reserve policies and the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin is already factoring in much of the negative sentiment.

Bitcoin is “Pricing in” a Recessionary Environment

While commenting on its current status, Dragosch argued, “Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” asserting that the cryptocurrency has addressed much of the negativity already evident in the market. This follows reassurance from Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, stating that a recession in 2026 is unlikely.

Bitcoin statistics
Bitcoin is down 17.33% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite some underwhelming performance this season, with Bitcoin recently descending from a peak of $125,100 on October 5, there remains optimism for a rebound. Market sentiment dwindled when Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 on November 13, but it regained footing shortly thereafter. Dragosch stated, “I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now.”

Bitcoiners are Not Convinced of a Bear Market

Other figures in the cryptocurrency space share a belief in a trend reversal. Alessio Rastani, for example, indicated that the recent downturn may not suggest a prolonged bearish cycle.

Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, expressed confidence that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark by year’s end, potentially achieving new all-time highs.