Crypto Stocks Surge as Rate-Cut Odds Hit 87%

Crypto stocks including Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining saw notable gains as Polymarket projected an 87% chance of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, marking the highest odds for the month.

During this trading session, these Bitcoin miners experienced impressive double-digit increases over the past week. Other stocks such as Circle, related to USDC, also rose sharply, along with Coinbase and MicroStrategy.

Probability of a US Rate Cut Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket

Bitcoin’s value has increased by approximately 7% this week, rebounding from a dip to around $82,000 a week earlier.

Top 10 Bitcoin Mining Stocks Top 10 Bitcoin mining stocks. Source

Predictions for December began to fluctuate due to statements from Federal Reserve officials. For example, on October 29, Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, remarked that a rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” shifting market optimism.

Conversely, Christopher Waller, another Fed official, indicated on November 17 that the bank should consider cutting rates next month, citing weaknesses in the labor market and inflation nearing target levels.

Growing Demand for Prediction Markets

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, have expanded significantly this year. Polymarket previously partnered with TKO Group Holdings to support the UFC as its official prediction market partner.

In a noteworthy development, Kalshi secured $1 billion funding this month, raising its valuation to $11 billion, indicating strong investor confidence in prediction markets.

Meanwhile, Robinhood reported that more than one million users have engaged in trading within its prediction markets since March, resulting in nine billion contracts traded.

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