Bitcoin’s price movements in 2025 are closely resembling those seen during the 2022 bear market, according to recent research findings. This raised concerns among traders as Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be on a downward trend, aligning with historical data from the past bear market.
Key Highlights:
- BTC is tracking the bear market of 2022 with high precision as the year draws to a close.
- November has historically been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin.
- A surge in institutional investments into crypto ETFs suggests a potential turnaround in market sentiment.
BTC Price Analysis: “It Feels Bad Because It Is”
Network economist Timothy Peterson has illustrated that Bitcoin’s bearish trends in the second half of 2025 are remarkably similar to those of 2022.
He shared, “2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin.” Peterson highlights a striking 98% correlation between 2022 and the current year’s monthly trends, intensifying concerns amongst traders.
BTC price correlation data
BTC price correlation data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Quotes from Timothy Peterson:
“This month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015.”
Earlier reports from Cointelegraph indicated that a downturn in Bitcoin prices during November often leads to a similar outcome in December.
Crypto ETFs Indicate Potential Recovery for Investors
Changing macroeconomic conditions may facilitate a traditional “Santa rally” before the year concludes. Signs indicate a significant uptick in institutional investments, with reports of nearly $900 billion in inflows to US equities since November 2024. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $220 million recently, suggesting that institutional sell-offs may be subsiding.
This content does not constitute financial advice, and individuals should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
