Bitcoin may be on the brink of a major upswing as it appears misaligned with future economic forecasts, according to insights from a crypto researcher.
“The last time I observed such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” stated André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, in a recent post on X, referencing March 2020 when fears of a global health crisis caused Bitcoin’s value to plummet from approximately $8,000 to under $5,000.
While Dragosch notes that Bitcoin’s current market dynamics reflect the extreme risk-reward conditions experienced during the COVID pandemic, he also indicated that it is adjusting for the most pessimistic global growth outlook since 2022, which followed a series of aggressive monetary tightening measures from the US Federal Reserve and the breakdown of crypto exchange FTX.
Bitcoin is “pricing in” a recessionary environment
“Bitcoin is effectively adjusting for a recessionary growth climate,” Dragosch added, suggesting that much of the negative news has already influenced the asset’s price. On Sunday, Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, assured the public that the country is not at risk of a recession in 2026.
Bitcoin is down 17.33% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
Despite these predictions, Bitcoin’s performance has not met the expectations of many investors. After hitting an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, it entered a downward trend post a significant $19 billion liquidation on October 10, following the announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump on Chinese imports.
Market sentiment further declined when Bitcoin dropped below the critical $100,000 threshold on November 13. Although it approached the $90,000 mark on November 20, it quickly regained some ground shortly after.
Dragosch is optimistic about a potential resurgence in global growth driven by previous monetary stimulus, which he believes could boost the economy well into 2026, akin to the recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I truly believe we’re facing a comparable macro landscape right now,” he asserted.
Bitcoiners are not convinced of a bear market
Other figures in the crypto space are also foreseeing a similar recovery.
Alessio Rastani, a noted crypto trader, recently conveyed to Cointelegraph that the recent downturn might not indicate the beginning of a lengthy bear market. Instead, he suggested that the current data aligns with a historically consistent trend that has heralded substantial price increases around 75% of the time.
Meanwhile, Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, expressed confidence this past Wednesday that Bitcoin will recover to the $100,000 mark by year-end, and could potentially reach new heights.
