XWIN Research Japan’s Trend Index has shown a “mild uptrend” score of 72 out of 100, with Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizing around the $91,000 range.

This occurs in the midst of fear indicators and liquidity metrics that suggest precarious market conditions. Analysts believe that a combination of whale buying, rebound in spot prices, and excessive retail leverage creates a cautiously optimistic yet unstable market backdrop.

Trend Index Indicates Cautious Bull Phase

XWIN reports that genuine demand and liquidity support a favorable market sentiment, though overheated retail and thin liquidity may lead to unstable price movements.

Bitcoin is currently trading in the high-$80,000 to low-$90,000 range after declining from roughly $99,500 to around $86,500 within 11 days, remaining above the ETF average cost of about $82,000 and the short-term holder cost basis near $85,500.

The DeFi asset management platform’s index is in the “mild uptrend” zone (60–79), indicating a constructive market environment rather than a bubble scenario. This corresponds with market data revealing a $130 billion inflow into total market value as BTC approaches the $92,000 mark.

Whale activity is also crucial. On-chain data cited by XWIN indicates that holders with more than 10,000 BTC are returning to net accumulation, with consistent purchases seen in wallets containing between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC down to those holding under 1 BTC.

Further, XWIN highlighted Cointelegraph’s reports noting that the world’s top 100 publicly traded companies now possess over 1,058,000 BTC, marking a shift in corporate strategies regarding cryptocurrency investment.

Additional Insights

• Despite showing some price stability, market sentiment remains low, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 22. XWIN highlights that many traders view the $80,000 level as “fair value” for Bitcoin.
• Attention is also directed towards a sizeable options expiry, with 147,000 BTC contracts valued at $13 billion set to mature, potentially causing short-term fluctuations in the market.
• Key price levels are under scrutiny, with a breakthrough above $93,000 to $94,000 possibly pushing Bitcoin towards the influential $100,000 mark. Conversely, a drop below $85,500 could trigger further declines.
• Meanwhile, altcoins continue to lag behind, with many major cryptocurrencies experiencing declines of up to 50%. However, analysts contend that capital is amassing in stablecoins in anticipation of a potential market shift, and with Ethereum (ETH) regaining strength above $3,000 and expanding its block gas limit, XWIN suggests that Ethereum might be at the beginning of a new upward trend.