Bitcoin Price Outlook: Potential for a 50% Decline
Recent indicators suggest Bitcoin may experience significant price drops, potentially leading to a crash of up to 50%.
Bitcoin’s initial monthly MACD rollover in this cycle, combined with on-chain metrics, has increased the likelihood of a significant price decline, with forecasts now suggesting a drop to the mid-$60,000 range.
Key Insights:
- The MACD rollover suggest further risks for Bitcoin.
- MVRV bands indicate a potential decline towards critical support levels.
The MACD Indicator Turns Bearish
October marked the first occurrence of Bitcoin’s monthly MACD entering bearish territory in this bull cycle. In analysis presented by trader Brett, it was noted that similar signals in the past have often preceded approximately 50% price drops before establishing new lows.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView/Brett
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced such MACD flips five times since 2014, with four instances leading to substantial declines.
Price Projections by Peter Brandt
Veteran trader Peter Brandt provided projections suggesting Bitcoin might approach the upper limits of its rising support channel, likely around the $70,000 mark. He indicated that a continued price drop could lead to bearish targets in the mid-$40,000 range, translating to a potential 50% loss.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
MVRV Bands Signal Bearish Sentiment
Current metrics echo a bearish trend in Bitcoin’s valuation. The MVRV bands are still above the historically significant −0.5σ line, suggesting potential for further downside price action before finding a substantial bottom.
Bitcoin MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
Related: ‘Inevitable’ $50K BTC price crash: Keep reading for updates.
This content does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
