Bitcoin’s current trading patterns reveal a significant disconnection from larger macroeconomic trends. Despite a surge in global liquidity, Bitcoin, abbreviated as BTC, has been unable to keep pace with the growth of money supply and the performance of gold.
A recent report by Bitwise speculates that this disparity sets the stage for a noteworthy opportunity for Bitcoin investors as the cryptocurrency heads into 2026.
Key Insights:
- Bitcoin is currently trading 66% below the global money supply, suggesting a fair value approaching $270,000.
- Gold, conversely, has capitalized on monetary inflation during 2025, now exceeding the global M2 supply by 75%.
Global Liquidity Trends and Bitcoin’s Response
In the latest Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report, it was noted that, contrary to its performance, the market for Bitcoin is becoming increasingly favorable. Key initiatives such as the issuance of near $1.9 trillion in U.S. Treasurys and stimulus checks, alongside the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening, signal a shift towards economic reflation.
Macro Indicator signals against Bitcoin growth. Source: Bitwise
Simultaneously, Japan’s $110 billion stimulus initiative and China’s $1.4 trillion fiscal package further highlight this trend. With over 320 global interest rate reductions in the last two years, global money supply (M2) has reached $137 trillion.
According to Bitwise’s models, this current rate undervalues Bitcoin significantly, suggesting it could have a upside potential of nearly 194% as it aligns with long-term liquidity trends.
Bitcoin’s Comparison with Gold
Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has indicated that while Bitcoin’s momentum is still lagging behind gold, the asset behaves like a younger sibling learning to secure its place. Timmer observed that Bitcoin, although currently volatile and lesser in value compared to gold, retains its robust structural characteristics.
Bitcoin momentum and Sharpe ratio. Source: Jurrien Timmer/X
This discussion underscores a critical narrative: while Bitcoin’s market performance doesn’t reflect its potential amid rigorous monetary expansion, it might be on the verge of a turnaround.
This article does not provide investment advice. All investment and trading actions carry risks, and readers are encouraged to perform thorough research.
