For over ten years, Bitcoin investors have relied on the typical four-year cycle to steer through market phases influenced by halving events. However, with the year 2025 approaching, this traditional approach appears increasingly outdated, prompting analysts to seek alternative methods to forecast Bitcoin’s direction.

Some analysts suggest that the influx of institutional capital is changing the dynamics of the market, while others point to a reduced impact from halvings, the emergence of AI as a competing investment option, and shifts in global liquidity that deviate from historical patterns. Regardless of the causes, it’s apparent that Bitcoin’s movement no longer follows its historical trajectory.

In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Jeff Park, the partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, questions the validity of the conventional four-year cycle. He posits that Bitcoin may be transitioning into a shorter, more reactive two-year cycle.

Park asserts that Bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally evolved due to different incentives driving institutional flows compared to retail investors.

Central to Park’s argument is a thought-provoking proposition: more frequent cycles might substantially alter how investors perceive timing, volatility, and Bitcoin’s potential developments through 2026.

He discusses the preference among some investors for short-term weaknesses, how liquidity trends correlate with this new cycle, and the implications for future market movements.

Watch the complete interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for an in-depth look at the two-year cycle theory and its potential effects on Bitcoin’s future.