Short-term Bitcoin traders (STHs) enjoyed profitability on 229 out of 345 days this year, even amid a significant 30% drop in the Bitcoin price. The question now is whether this trend will persist into 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Short-term holders registered gains for 66% of 2025, despite the BTC price remaining below its annual opening.
• The realized price at $81,000 served as a pivotal point, separating periods of panic from recovery.
• Unrealized losses have decreased from -28% to -12%, indicating a reduction in capitulation.

Bitcoin Approaches Its Realized Price

The tumultuous nature of 2025 can be understood through the lens of one- to three-month STHs. As shown in several graphs, Bitcoin’s cost interacted frequently with the realized price, resulting in alternating phases of profitability and losses for short-term holders.

Early in 2025, BTC remained above this threshold for almost two months, giving STHs their initial run of consistent gains. Yet, the transition into February and March saw prices dip below the realized price, resulting in deep losses for STHs.

However, there was a sharp rebound from late April to mid-October, aligning with a substantial period of profitability. Although the general market trend softened, the remarkable recoveries enabled STHs to conclude the year with a two-thirds profit ratio.

The Future of Bitcoin’s Cost Basis

As Bitcoin’s value climbed toward $92,500, STH unrealized losses shrank to -12% from -28%, signaling the easing of forced sell-offs and a shift toward emotional stability. The $81,000 realized price continues to act as a psychological marker; historically, each reclaim has suggested a transition from capitulation to stability.

If Bitcoin persists in enhancing profitability while remaining above $81,000, the late-year corrections could be nearing completion, paving the way for a new growth phase.

This piece does not offer investment advice. All financial activities carry risk, and individuals should do their due diligence.