Bitcoin (BTC) Signals Bearish Transition as Market Indicators Deteriorate
Current market indicators reveal that Bitcoin is transitioning into a bearish phase, suggesting increased selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing clear signs of entering a heightened risk-off phase as market structure indicators trend into bearish territory.
According to analyst Axel Adler, the Structure Shift composite indicator and the Bull-Bear Index are signaling increased downward pressure, particularly in the derivatives market.
Risk-Off Signals Flash Red
The Structure Shift signal, measuring overall market structure on a scale from -1 to +1, has dropped from positive levels to around -0.5. This confirms a bearish dominance in the market.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is declining towards the lower boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel, with support noted around the $85,000 level. The market has firmly established itself within a bearish structural area, and any potential recovery would require the composite signal to surpass zero while maintaining channel support.
Derivatives are significantly impacting this market transition. The Bull-Bear Index separates short-term and long-term pressure, showing a strong bearish component trending into negative territory, while the bullish aspect has dropped to just 5%. This indicates that selling pressure from futures is overwhelming demand in the spot market, solidifying short-term momentum in favor of the bears.
Adler explained that a negative Structure Shift signal does not predict an immediate price drop but indicates a need for defensive positions.
Whales and Miners Resist Bitcoin Sell-Off
Recent data from CryptoQuant sheds light on the current scenario. Although US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows totaling about $635 million within two days, on-chain indicators reveal significant pessimism among short-term market participants.
The Coinbase Premium Gap has reached deeply negative levels, while the Fear and Greed Index is at 11, indicating extreme fear. Rising supply reflecting losses and a depressed MVRV (market value to realized value) among short-term holders point towards many new buyers exiting at a loss.
Contrasting this negative sentiment, a specific group of whales and miners are showing resilience. For instance, the Miner Position Index (MPI) stands at -0.81, indicating miners are sending fewer BTC to exchanges, thereby easing selling pressure. Additionally, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have accrued almost 700,000 BTC over the last two months.
