Coinbase Institutional asserts that the upcoming year, 2026, could herald a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency, led by regulatory clarity and the increasing adoption of stablecoins in a more favorable macroeconomic environment.

In a detailed report, they highlight that digital currencies are transitioning from being a niche market to a fundamental component of the global financial infrastructure. Despite the chaotic year of 2025 characterized by significant price swings and sporadic liquidity, Coinbase anticipates that clearer global regulations will foster innovation and lead to the maturation of the market.

Instead of experiencing another retail-driven surge and crash, 2026 is poised to be defined by institutional integration and regulatory clarity, enabling traditional financial institutions to engage more fully in crypto markets.

In the U.S., key policy developments, including progress on legislation for stablecoins such as the GENIUS Act and a broader crypto market structure bill, are highlighted by Coinbase as crucial in shaping this new phase of adoption.

These changes are expected to affect various aspects of the market, from risk management and compliance requirements to investment strategies for institutions.

Coinbase’s Key Drivers Coinbase Institutional flags the evolution of US crypto policy as a key driver of a potentially transformative 2026.

According to projections from Coinbase, the market for stablecoins is expected to expand significantly, potentially reaching around $1.2 trillion by 2028, facilitated by increased reliance for payments, settlements, payrolls, and remittances across borders.

Stablecoin Growth After years of rapid expansion, Coinbase Institutional’s model forecasts that the stablecoin market could reach $1.2 trillion by 2028.

Despite these optimistic projections, there remains a cautious note regarding macroeconomic conditions, as Coinbase describes their expectations as “cautiously optimistic.” Although the economy is anticipated to continue recovering, inflation risks and potential timelines for interest rate adjustments could impact the recovery of crypto markets heading into 2026.

Bitcoin’s Changing Volatility Profile

Coinbase also noted a significant evolution in Bitcoin’s volatility, indicating that it now resembles the volatility of high-growth tech stocks rather than being an outlier among major asset classes. As of the end of 2025, Bitcoin’s 90-day historical volatility has reduced to around 35% to 40%, down from over 60% in mid-2024, after absorbing major structural changes such as the rollout of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin’s Volatility Bitcoin’s volatility profile is now comparable to major technology stocks.

Despite a tumultuous 2025 for Bitcoin holders, with sharp price fluctuations leading to new highs and subsequent corrections amid high leverage and forced liquidations, Coinbase asserts that 2025 represented a crucial milestone in Bitcoin’s integration into the global financial dialogue.