Polymarket traders estimate an 86% chance of Lighter’s airdrop happening by the end of 2025, coinciding with the decentralized exchange launching wallet allocation forms and redistributing reduced trading points.

Lighter, a competitive perpetual decentralized exchange (perp DEX) against Hyperliquid, is stirring speculation about its airdrop as Polymarket traders wager that a token will be launched within the year.

Sebas, known as Babastianj, a key contributor at Lighter DEX, announced the key processes are nearing completion before the eagerly awaited token generation event (TGE) during a recent Discord chat.

“We’re in the final phase of Season 2 and running data science to eliminate Sybil and wash-trading points,” he stated, mentioning the redistribution of all previously slashed points back to the community.

This news has sparked increased hope for Lighter’s airdrop, further amplified by Hyperliquid listing the upcoming Lighter token against USDC on Monday.

Lighter’s Airdrop Allocation Form Open Until Friday

On Sunday, Lighter initiated an airdrop allocation form, permitting users to designate their tokens across up to four additional wallets.

This form allows different amounts of tokens to be allocated to each wallet, with submissions accepted until Friday. Sebas indicated on Discord, “If you don’t submit this form and qualify, the airdrop will go to your main Lighter account.”

Lighter transferred 250 million LIT tokens—equivalent to 25% of the total supply—on Friday, prompting community speculation about an imminent airdrop leading up to the TGE expected by December 31.

Lighter disclosed that its Season 1 points program concluded with a final private beta distribution on September 30, with Season 2 points distributed weekly.

Polymarket Odds on Lighter Airdrop at 86%

As community anticipation rises, Polymarket has seen bets supporting an 86% likelihood for Lighter’s airdrop occurring before year’s end, with $9.5 million in backing.

Over half of the traders on Polymarket believe in a successful airdrop by December 31.

Onchain analyst Andrew 10 GWEI suggested that the airdrop is likely to happen by year-end based on alleged insider bet proof.

This announcement comes after Lighter’s significant $68 million funding round in November, backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital shortly after it went public in October.

Founded in 2022 by tech entrepreneur Vladimir Novakovski, Lighter has become a key player among perp DEXs, currently ranking second after Hyperliquid.

In mid-December, Coinbase added Lighter to its listing roadmap, hinting at a future listing for the token yet to be issued.