Bitcoin (BTC) is currently testing a significant resistance level at around $100,000 this week. Analysts suggest this mark could be crucial in determining the asset’s next major move.

Whether the recent recovery signals the beginning of a bullish trend or if it’s just a pause in a longer-term decline heavily depends on this threshold.

The $100,000 Battle Line

After five consecutive days of gains, the longest winning streak since early October 2025, Bitcoin peaked briefly above $94,000 on January 6, according to CoinGecko data. The asset has shown an increase of approximately 7.6% over the past week, yet the overall market outlook remains ambiguous. A key indicator, tracked by on-chain analysts, is the average acquisition price for coins that last traded between six and twelve months ago, currently near the $100,000 level.

As highlighted by analyst Crypto Dan, Bitcoin’s pricing sits below this level. Historical data indicates that prices below this cost basis typically result in a negative trend, increasing the possibility of further losses.

“Historically, when price sits under this level, the broader trend leans bearish, and the risk of further downside remains elevated,” wrote the expert.

However, breaking through $100,000 could denote a significant shift, considering that reclaiming this price point previously indicated a transition from bearish to bullish market trends. Crypto Dan notes that the current situation makes this price vital for all traders.

“Right now, that cost basis sits near $100K. After weeks of sideways movement, Bitcoin is showing early signs of a rebound, making this level the key threshold to watch.”

Failing to surpass it may suggest that the downtrend, which began after October’s all-time high exceeding $126,000, remains intact. This technical perspective aligns with observations from other experts, including Doctor Profit, who noted that Bitcoin has recently crossed a short-term resistance level, paving the way towards the $97,000-$107,000 range.

Conflicting Signals in a Transition Phase

Other market indicators reveal a mixed scenario, indicating Bitcoin might be in a transitional phase. For instance, the ratio of Bitcoin to stablecoins on Binance indicates a buildup of purchasing power. Analyst Darkfost highlighted a recent increase of about $1 billion in stablecoin reserves on the exchange, signaling a substantial amount of capital ready to invest in BTC.

Conversely, BorisD pointed out that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio, which gauges returns against volatility, has been decreasing despite rising prices. This situation indicates that the recent price increase is likely more influenced by internal market dynamics rather than robust new demand from external investors, a behavior frequently observed when markets are in search of a clear direction.

Nonetheless, all eyes remain on whether Bitcoin can break through the $100,000 barrier and reshape its market narrative.