The price of Ripple’s XRP is testing a crucial support near $2.12 this week, following a surge that positioned it as the world’s third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency. A key market analyst has now suggested a 60% chance for further upward movements for the asset.

Preparing for a Bigger Movement

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted that XRP remains within a specified downward channel on its five-day chart. Their assessment interprets the current trend as a controlled correction instead of a distribution phase.

This analysis indicates a 60% probability of an upward breakout, assuming the price can close above the 21-period exponential moving average and breach the upper channel near $2.30. According to EGRAG, such momentum could lead to targets between $3.10 and $3.30.

“Until then → it’s just a bounce inside the channel, not a breakout,” insisted the market analyst.
Translation: They maintain a cautious view until a breakout is confirmed.

On the contrary, they see a 30% chance of continued sideways trading, with only a 10% likelihood of a decline towards $1.

Trading patterns support this intensified focus, as XRP commentator John Squire noted an astonishing $23 million in global trading volume was recorded within a single minute, indicating a level of trading engagement beyond mere retail activities.

Data remarked by multiple observers shows substantial inflows into newly launched spot XRP ETFs, which have drawn nearly $1.2 billion since mid-November 2025, absorbing close to 1% of the circulating supply over just over a month.

Future Price Dynamics and Market Behavior

Real-time data indicates XRP is trading above $2.10, reflecting a 12% increase over the past week, contributing to its rise over BNB in market capitalization on January 3. This represents part of a more extensive recovery following a late-2025 downturn, with the asset up about 4% in the last 30 days.

Market perspectives are split concerning XRP’s near-term trajectory. On one side, on-chain metrics provide bullish signals, with data from CryptoOnchain demonstrating the XRP Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance hitting a one-month peak, suggesting that aggressive selling pressure might be easing.

Conversely, others, like Cheds Trading, identified a notable four-hour trading volume spike as potentially bearish, especially as resistance levels have hindered upward movement, with sell walls noted between $2.17 and $2.25 that could impede progress.

Overall, the outlook for XRP remains diverse for 2026, ranging from a potential rally driven by institutional interest to a bearish decline amid profit-taking and adverse market conditions.