Bitcoin (BTC) began 2026 on a positive note, gaining over 7% in the last week and reaching around $93,600 at the time of writing, with a daily increase of 1%. Trading volumes are substantial at $51.5 billion.

On Tuesday morning, Bitcoin peaked at its highest in almost two months, approaching $95,000. Unlike prior fluctuations, this surge continued past Monday, a notable change compared to the common pattern of rapid profit reversals.

Movement Towards Key Resistance

Bitcoin has bounced back from lower weekly levels near $86,200, previously seen as a support zone. The price now challenges the upper range near $93,500. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that closing above this threshold may indicate a breakout. Although currently trading above the range top, the weekly close will be pivotal.

This upward shift also coincides with Bitcoin breaking through a downtrend line established since October 2025, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment.

“$93,500 must hold as support for a mid-term bullish outlook,” states Rekt Capital.

Bitcoin Price Chart Bitcoin (BTC) Price Chart 6.1. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Despite recent gains, caution prevails among market experts. Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin closed its 12-month candle under $93,500, with similar past price levels remaining unbroken until the subsequent halving year.

“If Bitcoin indeed has entered a bear market, prices could exceed $93,500 in the coming months before dropping further.”

Market analyst Sykodelic pointed to robust buying volumes driving the recent ascent. They mentioned a breakout observed in the On-Balance Volume and signs of a market premium on Coinbase, advising caution:

“We need to surpass and maintain $94.5K. If not, a revisit to $89K is possible.”

Shifts in Macro Trends

Analyst Lark Davis observed a technical crossover on the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, noting a monthly MACD golden cross that aligns with bitcoin’s significant rallies in past years.

“Not official QE yet… but it sure looks like QE and smells like QE,” Davis mentioned.

This crossover could imply an expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet after a sustained decline, likely influencing market dynamics in early 2026, particularly concerning risk assets like Bitcoin.

Support Levels and Market Predictions

Michaël van de Poppe identified the $90,000–$91,000 range as a short-term support level requiring protection. This zone aligns with the 21-day moving average, and failure to maintain it may push prices lower.

“If this zone holds and a higher low forms, we might see $100K,” he forecasts.

Data from Glassnode indicates Bitcoin’s recovery from previous corrections, though current market conditions remain precarious. While several indicators show positive trends, some analysts speculate this rally might be the final push before another major downturn.