Bitcoin (BTC) inflows have dried up, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who stated that the market is likely heading into several months of flat, uneventful price movement rather than a dramatic sell-off.

His comments are significant as they counter both fears of a crash and hopes for a swift bullish turnaround at a time when Bitcoin trades just below key recovery levels following a volatile end to 2025.

Capital Rotation Signals a Shift in Bitcoin Cycle

In a recent post on X, Ki noted that capital is no longer meaningfully flowing into Bitcoin. Instead, investments have shifted towards equities and commodities—what he calls “stocks and shiny rocks.” He argues that this change, alongside structural alterations in the market, diminishes the effectiveness of inflow timing compared to previous cycles.

Ki emphasized that the traditional trend of large holders selling into retail demand has diminished. Long-term institutional ownership has altered supply behaviors, and he dismissed worries that significant corporate holders will suddenly inundate the market with coins. For instance, he referenced Strategy’s 673,000 BTC stash, suggesting the firm is unlikely to sell a substantial portion.

Consequently, Ki predicts that a major market downturn similar to past bear markets is unlikely. Instead of a significant drop from the all-time high, he anticipates a period of “boring sideways” price movements for the next few months. He advised traders betting on a sudden market downturn:

“Shorting here hoping for a nuke? Good luck with that.”

Not everyone agrees with this outlook. A response from X user Inner Edition expressed disappointment and skepticism regarding the arrival of a bull market. In response, Ki urged patience, likening Bitcoin to something that improves with time rather than quick speculation.

Supporting Data for a Gradual Phase

A recent analysis by CryptoZeno adds context to Ki’s perspective. Their report indicates that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is hovering near the 0.3 level, a range that historically has acted as a holding point between recovery and renewed risk-taking. This data suggests average holders are back in slight profit but far from the exuberance seen in previous cycles.

Glassnode also shares a similar view in their report from earlier this year, stating that Bitcoin is entering 2026 with a “cleaner market structure” following a significant reset. Overall, profit-taking has diminished, derivatives positioning has been adjusted, and ETF flows in the U.S. are showing positive trends, albeit inconsistently.

Market analysts remain divided. For instance, Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan believes that BTC’s recovery can continue if regulatory clarity in Washington improves and equity markets do not face steep declines. Conversely, cautious voices, including the anonymous Doctor Profit, still observe the potential for lower prices later in the year, despite limited near-term downside risks.