Ethereum (ETH) started 2026 with renewed strength, ending the previous year just below $3,000. Recent price movements above $3,200 triggered technical breakout signals, rekindling trader interest. However, varying on-chain data indicates that caution is advisable.

Bollinger Bands Tighten on ETH Chart

On the 3-day chart, Ethereum experiences a narrow Bollinger Band squeeze, indicating low volatility often preceding a significant price move. As of the latest update, ETH trades around $3,100 (per CoinGecko), positioning closely to the center of the band.

Analyst Bryant pointed out a similarity to past rallies, where a similar configuration helped ETH soar from $1,800 to $4,900. He mentioned a whale indicator that has activated one of the two necessary signals for a confirmed breakout; however, the second signal remains untriggered. The structure hints at increasing momentum, but confirmation of the breakout is still pending.

"$ETH is about to EXPLODE to the upside. How? The Bollinger Bands are squeezing tightly, meaning that a BIG move is coming soon. The last time two of two whale colors turned on, $ETH climbed from $1.8K to $4.9K. Waiting for the pop. (And the second whale color.)" Source: Bryant (@TheSkayeth)

On another note, Chartist Ali Martinez noted a breakout from a symmetrical triangle on the daily ETH chart. This price action tightens over time, and Ethereum has moved above the upper trendline, trading slightly above the breakout area.

The expected target based on the triangle height is approximately $3,700. For this target to remain valid, ETH must maintain positions above the $3,100 to $3,300 range. If prices dip below this level, the breakout structure weakens. The triangle’s support sits around $2,800. Analysts, including those at CryptoPotato, forecast potential long-term targets for ETH reaching $10,000 and beyond in this cycle.

On-Chain Data Shows Weak US Demand

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the Coinbase Premium Gap has reached a significant low, reflecting reduced institutional interest from the U.S. A negative gap indicates lower demand on Coinbase.

CryptoOnchain from CryptoQuant reported a 14-day average premium of minus 2.285. This decline denotes diminished involvement from U.S.-based buyers. As ETH hovers near $3,300 resistance, the absence of institutional activity might impede further gains.

Conversely, data on exchange reserves reflects a decrease in ETH balance on exchanges below 16.5 million, among the lowest figures in recent years. A reduced supply on exchanges typically alleviates immediate selling pressure.