Future of Spot XRP ETF: Insights from AI Predictions

In November last year, I discussed ChatGPT’s perspectives on BlackRock’s potential to launch a spot XRP ETF. It highlighted the growing interest from major firms in various digital assets, despite the absence of a definitive announcement at the time.

What’s the Outlook for Spot XRP ETF in 2026?

On November 13, spot XRP ETFs were officially launched, starting with the XRPC by Canary Capital. Since then, additional companies have entered the market, with their combined assets under management (AUM) as of January 9th being:

Canary Capital (XRPC) – $375M (NASDAQ)
Bitwise (XRP) – $300MM (NYSE)
Franklin Templeton (XRPZ) – $279M (NYSE)
Grayscale (GXRP) – $271M (NYSE)
21 Shares (TOXR) – $246M (CBOE)

This leads to a total AUM of approximately $1.5 billion, indicating strong market demand.

Recent data shows that the AUM had been steadily rising until January 5th, after which there was a decline of around $150 million.

Source: SoSoValue

In comparison, while spot ETH ETFs are significantly larger, they have experienced substantial outflows since October 2025. Will this trend lead BlackRock to reconsider launching a spot XRP ETF in the current market environment?

Insights from Gemini

Google’s Gemini posits a moderate to high likelihood that BlackRock will initiate a spot XRP ETF in 2026, driven by fears of missing out amidst evolving regulations. It asserts that the barriers preventing conservative firms like BlackRock from engaging in crypto have mostly dissipated.

Competitors have already seen over a billion in investments, underscoring institutional interest. Furthermore, the recent resolution of the legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC has clarified the status of XRP when sold on secondary markets.

Additionally, ChatGPT also estimated a 50% chance for BlackRock to launch the ETF by 2026.

“The regulatory blockers that previously kept conservative giants like BlackRock on the sidelines have largely been removed.” – Gemini

This indicates that institutional interest in the market has never been greater.