Global investment management firm VanEck is optimistic that the first quarter of 2026 will present an opportunity for investors to take on more risk due to increased clarity in fiscal policy and monetary direction along with key investment trends.

VanEck stated, “As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility.” However, they caution that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle disrupted in 2025 complicates short-term predictions.

VanEck pointed out, “This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” while some executives within the company maintain a more positive view on the cycle movement.

A risk-on sentiment typically enhances prospects for riskier assets, including AI and tech stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin has shown signs of disconnect from stock and gold markets following a major deleveraging event last October.

Fewer fiscal and monetary surprises ahead VanEck remarked, “One of the most important developments for markets is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture.” They further clarified, “While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from the historic highs reached during the COVID period.”

“This fiscal stabilization is helping anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks.”

The VanEck outlook focuses more on medium-term trends compared to immediate fluctuations, according to Justin d’Anethan.

Justin shared, “One can’t help but look at price action, which often is its own narrative as confirmation,” adding:

“With BTC rising in a low-leverage environment, it feels like a lot of last year’s fluff was taken out, leaving bulls a tad more realistic, and bears tamed in their apocalyptic prophecies.”

Tim Sun noted that as the midterm elections near, both fiscal and financial conditions will favor risk assets. He stated:

“Fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and favorable regulatory developments collectively form a classic risk‑on macroeconomic window in the first half of 2026. In such an environment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand to benefit.”

Crypto investor Will Clemente remarked:

“This environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for.”

Michaël van de Poppe expressed his confidence that BTC prices will hit six figures by the end of January, highlighting the steady performance near the 21-day moving average and ongoing buyer interest. He forecasted a push above $92,000 could lead BTC to reach $100,000 within ten days.