Key Highlights:

• Institutional investors are offloading Bitcoin, as indicated by Bitcoin ETFs seeing a net outflow of $1.38 billion over four sessions.
• Bitcoin futures data shows a neutral 5% basis rate, far below the 10% level which typically signifies a bullish breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a brief uptick to $92,000 following reports of a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, market participants remain cautious due to substantial ETF outflows.

Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin has dropped 23% since October 2025, while precious metals like gold and silver hit all-time highs. This situation is raising doubts about Bitcoin’s reliability as a digital store of value. Even if Bitcoin climbs further towards $105,000, investor sentiment may not shift positively, especially as analysts face uncertainty regarding future economic stimulus from the US government.

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its predictions, now forecasting no interest rate cut in March due to persistent inflation and strong labor data, despite a minor slowdown. President Donald Trump has been vocal about his discontent with the Fed’s high interest rates amid rising inflation, which has consistently stayed above the 2% target.

Powell is undergoing scrutiny for a Fed renovation project, leading to discussions about the potential risk to the independence of central banks, which might benefit alternative assets like Bitcoin. He suggests the situation should be examined in the context of Trump’s administration’s pressures.

Bitcoin Struggles to Maintain Momentum Above $94,000

Even after Bitcoin touched $91,000 on Monday, bullish sentiment remains muted, as indicated by derivative data.

Despite the market retaining some potential, Bitcoin’s risk snapshot remains unchanged by the ongoing tussle between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration. Premiums on Bitcoin futures are holding close to a neutral-to-bearish 5%.

ETFs tracking Bitcoin have seen significant outflows, recording $1.38 billion in losses over four consecutive trading days, with the asset struggling to stay above $94,000 recently. Notably, MicroStrategy has confirmed a substantial Bitcoin purchase worth $1.25 billion under CEO Michael Saylor, marking its largest acquisition since July 2025.

Although Bitcoin may serve as a hedge against established financial systems, there are no clear indicators that confidence in the US dollar is waning. While a fiscal deficit of $601 billion was reported in late 2025, US government debt remains robust, retaining its investment-grade rating. Treasury yields have not surpassed 3.8% recently, indicating a stable outlook.

If the market were prepping for an economic downturn, the US dollar would have likely depreciated against other currencies. Interestingly, the US Dollar Strength Index has recovered to 99, countering earlier declines.

In conclusion, the overall enthusiasm for Bitcoin seems subdued, as ETF flows and interest in leveraged positions suggest a low probability of an unexpected rally towards $105,000 soon.