Bitcoin’s price rose above $97,000 on January 14, marking a peak not seen since November.

The surge occurred alongside discussions among analysts regarding a potential shift in Bitcoin’s pricing structure, prompting speculation on its implications.

A Deviation From Historical Rhythm

Analyst Egrag Crypto pointed out that for over ten years, Bitcoin’s yearly price trends followed a cyclic pattern: three up years followed by one down year, aligning with the halving cycle that usually sees positive trends after halvings.

Egrag observed that this cycle seems to be changing, with the sequence from 2023 to 2025 being Green, Green, Red, diverging from the traditional Green, Green, Green, Red pattern.

He estimates there’s a 55% to 65% chance that 2026 will be bullish, viewing 2025 as a necessary cooling-off period rather than the start of a downturn. This forecast is contingent on Bitcoin closing strongly above $105,000, maintaining stability above $90,000, and showing momentum on longer time frames.

Conversely, a bearish outcome for 2026, assessed at 35% to 45%, would suggest consolidation rather than a crash, characterized by wider price fluctuations and slower movement.

Analyst Commentary

This discussion aligns with comments from chartist PlanB, who highlighted that the four-year cycle shouldn’t be equated to the stock-to-flow model. He stated that while typically the year following a halving is strong, 2025 seems to have deviated from that norm.

PlanB also remarked that the stock-to-flow model monitors average prices across cycles rather than their extremes, with the average currently around $90,000, significantly above the previous cycle’s average of $34,000.

Market Movements

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading just under $97,000, showing a daily increase of approximately 2%, with weekly gains near 8% and about 12% higher for the month, according to CoinGecko.

The price fluctuated from just below $90,000 to touching $98,000 within a few days, exceeding several former resistance levels. Analysts like Ted Pillows are now monitoring the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 as a technical benchmark.

On the other hand, short-term holders have been quite active. Darkfost reported that over 40,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges in a single day as Bitcoin approached $97,000, a sign of caution following a market correction late in 2025.

Notably, Bitcoin’s market dominance has surged above 57%, whereas many larger altcoins have lagged, underscoring Bitcoin’s strength during this recovery.