Bitcoin is experiencing a significant pullback after a robust recovery initiated in early January. The cryptocurrency faced rejection near the critical area around $98,000, coinciding with a significant resistance level and a cluster of key moving averages.

Currently, it is retracing while maintaining support above vital higher-low zones established in December. This phase can be interpreted as a test of support strength rather than an outright trend reversal.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has retreated from the resistance zone at $98,000, which aligns with the top of a rising channel pattern and is near the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving average sits above at approximately $105,000, confirming that the broader medium-term trend has yet to fully align upward. The Daily RSI has receded from overbought levels and is now falling below the 50% mark.

The immediate significant support is found in the $90,000 region, where the lower channel boundary intersects with the recent bounce base. A close below this area could signal a deeper dive towards the $80,000 demand block, where recent upward movement originated and where a previous major accumulation took place.

As long as Bitcoin remains above $88,000 and recaptures the mid-$90,000 range decisively, the daily structure may still develop into a constructive higher-low pattern. However, continuous trading below $88,000 would markedly undermine this optimistic outlook.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart Source: TradingView

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour analysis indicates that Bitcoin is approaching the lower boundary of an ascending channel. Having retraced from a recent peak near $96,000, it now hovers around the $90,000–$91,000 area, where provisional support had formed earlier.

The 4-hour RSI has transitioned into the oversold zone, indicating stretched downward momentum following several consecutive declines. If the lower boundary around $89,000–$90,000 holds firm, a technical rebound towards $93,000–$95,000 would be consistent with a routine retest of the broken intraday range.

Conversely, a decisive break below $89,000 would confirm a loss of the short-term up-channel and likely prompt a more extensive examination of the higher timeframe support around $80,000. At present, the intraday structure demonstrates corrective pressure within a larger consolidation range, rather than indicating a fully developed bearish trend.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart Source: TradingView

On-Chain Insights

Recent months have shown a pattern among short-term holders with consistent loss realization. The 30-day EMA of the short-term holder SOPR has remained significantly below its neutral benchmark of 1, suggesting that coins held for shorter durations have been sold at a loss on average. This trend indicates that latecomers and weaker hands have been exiting during the consolidation phase, absorbing the downside and sideways fluctuations without staunchly defending elevated prices.

Historically, extended periods during which short-term holders incur losses while prices remain above key higher-timeframe supports are viewed as a market positioning ‘reset’: speculative excess diminishes, ownership shifts to more robust holders, and responsiveness to marginal new demand increases.

This dynamic does not assure immediate price increases; however, the combination of sustained structural support and signs of capitulation among transient participants aligns with a near-end corrective environment, potentially setting the stage for a subsequent upward movement once selling pressure subsides.

Short-Term Holder SOPR Source: CryptoQuant