Bitcoin’s hope of reaching a price of $100,000 is looking dim after a recent downturn in the market.
Key Insights:
- The likelihood of Bitcoin’s price reaching $100,000 before February is under 10%.
- Traders are skeptical about BTC hitting the six-figure mark anytime soon.
- Bitcoin’s price is expected to fall below its cost basis in 2026.
Predictions on Bitcoin’s Price Movement
The majority of traders are unsure about Bitcoin’s rise back to six figures in the next week. Recent assessments show about 6% likelihood for BTC to exceed $100,000 by January 31. Another prediction platform estimates this can happen before the end of January, setting odds at 7%.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin’s $100K price target before Jan. 31. Source: Polymarket
The highest recorded Bitcoin price in 2026 reached $97,900 on January 14, with the last observation above $100,000 being on November 13.
The market signals indicate that if Bitcoin can reclaim this level, it might take mid-February to occur.
Market analysts have forecasted that Bitcoin might face a price drop below $75,979, an average cost basis, suggesting an ongoing bear market.
Odds that Bitcoin drops below Strategy’s average cost. Source: Polymarket.
To summarize, traders anticipate that the conditions might remain unfavorable for Bitcoin, with expectations of further price reductions.
