Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC Faces Challenges After 7% Weekly Drop Below $90,000
An analysis of Bitcoin's recent price behavior following a significant weekly decline, looking at potential future movements and market dynamics.
Bitcoin is currently undergoing a correction, having struggled to maintain a breakout above the mid-$90,000 levels. The latest fluctuations suggest a pullback rather than a definitive trend reversal. Key moving averages and supply zones have influenced the immediate risk balance, pointing towards further consolidation or potential declines before a new uptrend can be anticipated.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
The daily chart reveals that the cryptocurrency has retracted from the resistance around $95,000, coinciding with the 100-day moving average’s underside, and well below the declining 200-day average. The previous ascending wedge formed from the $82,000 demand area has recently collapsed, with Bitcoin trading near essential breakout and local support zones around $89,000-$90,000.
As long as Bitcoin’s price remains below the 100-day moving average and fails to regain its previous wedge structure, market conditions are likely to oscillate between the $82,000-$84,000 demand zone and the $95,000-$97,000 supply area, with increasing risks that price might test the lower boundary again.
BTC Daily Chart
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart illustrates the breakdown from the upward channel that supported the price climb from approximately $84,000 to the recent high of $96,000. After losing it along with the $90,000 intraday pivot, a tentative support has been established near $88,000–$89,000, which aligns with the start of the latest upward movement.
Momentum indicators on the 4-hour RSI have shown a recovery from oversold conditions, yet they remain below previous highs, indicating only a temporary correction within a short downtrend. A sustained recovery above $92,000 could lead to a retest of $95,000, while failing to hold $88,000–$89,000 may heighten the likelihood of a move towards the $82,000 daily demand area, or even lower.
BTC 4-Hour Chart
On-Chain Analysis
The adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) and its 30-day EMA have been declining for several months, dipping from a secure profit zone above 1.02 to below the neutral band around 1.00. A trend indicating that profits on spent outputs are being gradually compressed as a greater portion of coins are sold near breakeven, leading to periodic losses when the aSOPR falls below 1. Such patterns often signify a late-cycle or post-euphoria phase where speculative excess is unwinding and weaker holders are exiting the market.
Should the aSOPR stabilize above 1 while prices secure higher-timeframe support, this would indicate a healthier market correcting itself without broad capitulation. Conversely, a sustained decline of aSOPR below 1 could imply more extensive profit-taking and losses, extending the corrective phase.
Adjusted SOPR
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