In a significant shift, Bitcoin holders are now realizing losses for the first time in over two years. This change comes as Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto market appear to be teetering on the edge of a bear cycle.

According to a weekly report from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have accumulated losses amounting to 69,000 BTC since December 23, marking the first occurrence of net losses in any 30-day period since October 2023.

Bitcoin Experiences a Change in Profit Dynamics

The analysis reveals that realized profits on the Bitcoin network have been declining since March 2024. This downturn coincided with a loss of momentum in prices, signaling the end of the previous bullish phase. Analysts have drawn parallels between the current market conditions and those from the 2021-2022 bullish cycle. After profits peaked in January 2021, they began to dwindle, with February and November 2021 witnessing a series of diminishing local tops followed by net losses. Intriguingly, BTC holders realized diminished profits even at higher price points during that period.

Following this pattern, net profits also peaked in January 2024. Since then, there have been successive lower peaks leading up to significant losses in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, the profit margin has shifted into negative territory as holders face net losses.

Signs of an Early-Stage Bear Market

Bitcoin’s net realized profits have seen a decline from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to just 2.5 million BTC at present—a level not encountered since March 2024. Analysts indicate that these metrics are reminiscent of those seen during the early stages of the last bear market in March 2022.

Moreover, the current net realized losses mirror trends observed in March 2022 when the bear market was in its infancy, as Bitcoin’s price lost traction. This trend, alongside current investor sentiment and speculation, suggests that the bear market has indeed commenced. Read more about the bear market dynamics here.

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Analysts confirm that numerous on-chain statistics and profit dynamics align with conditions typical of an early-stage bear market. Recently, CryptoPotato reported a fleeting improvement in Bitcoin’s demand conditions; however, this has failed to catalyze any substantial changes. Demand from exchange-traded funds as well as spot indicators has significantly contracted over the last 30 days.