Bitcoin's Next Major Move: Analysts Disagree on Forecasts

Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $87,800, having dipped to around $86,000 — its lowest in over a month. In the past week, it has experienced a decline exceeding 5%, with nearly 1% lost in the last 24 hours.

Analyst Predicts Possible Bounce

Crypto analyst Junkie suggests that Bitcoin has finalized a five-wave bearish sequence following Elliott Wave Theory, typically signaling the conclusion of a price movement. This analyst anticipates a possible short-term rebound prior to any additional drop. The accompanying chart indicates a potential ABC correction, characterized by an initial rise (A), a subsequent dip (B), and then another upward motion (C). Should this scenario unfold, Bitcoin might revisit a trendline established from earlier lows, potentially climbing back to between $91,000 and $92,000. Junkie stated:

“We may have a bit further down to go ($84k) until 5 waves finishes but if we haven’t reversed already, we will.”

A conflicting outlook from The Maverick of Wall Street indicates the emergence of a bear flag pattern on the weekly chart, commonly occurring after a significant decline. This configuration typically presents as a brief upward channel before falling again.

“Bitcoin bear flag is playing out, see you at $60k $BTC pic.twitter.com/jsdXG8gKZQ” — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS)

The breakdown from this flag suggests a potential decline towards $60,000, corresponding to a 31% reduction from the recent trading range. Additionally, Bitcoin has breached its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits around $101,000. Should the downward trend persist, the 200-week SMA, approximately $57,800, could serve as the next support level.

Ongoing Market Weakness

Data from Alphractal indicates that Bitcoin’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is decreasing but remains above zero. Historically, cycle bottoms are typically reached only after this metric turns negative, indicating complete capitulation, which has yet to be observed.

Another significant metric, the Delta Growth Rate, has also turned negative, indicating that speculative buying is decelerating. A recent report from CryptoQuant highlights that a growing number of holders are now liquidating their positions at a loss, marking the first time in over two years that profit margins have declined this dramatically.

As Bitcoin slipped below $88,000, increasing macroeconomic pressures also contributed to market hesitancy, including concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. The market currently hovers around critical support levels; a breach of these may lead to lower prices, while a bounce could test prior highs in the near future.