The Dismal Outlook for Ethereum: Will It Maintain Its Value Above $2,620?

Ethereum is starting February 2026 on shaky ground. After falling below significant benchmarks, it sits near levels traders are closely monitoring. Market participants are increasingly focused on whether Ethereum can maintain its position or if further declines are imminent.

Key Levels of Concern

The $2,710 price point has served as noteworthy support since December. Following a recent drop below this threshold, concerns arose that a more profound decline could occur. Crypto analyst Ardi characterized this area as very critical, stating that if Ethereum cannot maintain this level, the $2,620 swing low will be the next target.

Should the price drop below $2,620, focus is anticipated to shift toward the $2,450 level, which provided strong support in mid-2025. According to Ardi, this zone should act as the primary line of defense against more drastic declines. He further remarked, “A drop beneath that could get exceedingly grim.”

“Very critical area for the chart here. Lose this $2710 support and the $2620 swing low is the next hunt. ~$2450 should be the main line of defence on the macro move down. Below that gets extremely ugly.” — Ardi (@ArdiNSC)

Currently, Ethereum trades around $2,730, experiencing a 24-hour volume of $45.3 billion. The price has dropped by 7% in the past day and nearly 7% over the week (according to CoinGecko). For January, Ethereum lost approximately 7% of its value, trading significantly lower than the year’s earlier levels.

Over the last 24 hours, the price fluctuated between $2,700 and $2,940. Ethereum is currently 45% below its peak of $4,950, reached in August 2025.

ETF Outflows Inflicting Strain

Investor interest in Ethereum via ETFs has been diminishing, with January recording a net outflow exceeding $100 million. This followed a much steeper outflow of $617 million in December and close to $1.5 billion in November. The continuing exit over three months indicates waning institutional interest in Ethereum.

Another analyst, Ted, expressed concerns that Ethereum has lost the $2,800 zone, projecting that the $2,500-$2,600 range will likely act as the next support. “This is most likely to hold in the short term for any bounce,” he stated. However, the mixed ETF flows have caused many traders to remain cautious.

While the trend appears weakened, some market analysts are optimistic that conditions for a reversal are emerging. Bryant remarked that Ethereum is showing a “triple bullish divergence,” indicating that while the price creates lower lows, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates higher lows.

“This is a much stronger signal for a reversal,” said Bryant.

Others are keeping an eye on long-term trendlines. Kamran Asghar noted that Ethereum is currently testing a support level that has remained intact since 2022, pondering whether this could be a “buy-the-dip” area. Meanwhile, Sykodelic predicts a longer-term target of $10,000, describing it as a “reasonable minimum” if a full recovery is achieved.

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Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow 1.30. Source: SoSoValue