On January 30, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, responded to rampant community speculation regarding the price potential of XRP. He used basic financial principles to challenge optimistic predictions that suggest XRP could reach $50 or $100 soon.

Schwartz’s remarks highlight the gap between aspirational views in the community and the stark realities seen in trading patterns.

A Lesson in Expected Value

The discourse originated with a user’s request for Schwartz to clarify that XRP wouldn’t hit $50 or $100. Schwartz refrained from making definite price predictions, recalling that he once considered a mere $0.25 improbable for XRP. Instead, he provided a cogent framework for exploring such predictions.

He argued that if a significant number of rational investors genuinely believed that XRP had a 10% chance of reaching $100 in the near term, selling at current prices would be illogical.

“If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10,” Schwartz noted on X (formerly Twitter).
(Translation: “If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10.”)

He pointed out that those confident investors would rapidly buy, depleting the supply at lower prices. Yet, XRP’s trading far below that threshold indicates that a small fraction of market participants possess enough confidence to invest.

Schwartz claimed that anyone asserting otherwise “is not telling the truth,” stressing the inconsistency between claims made online and actual market behavior. He encouraged readers to apply comparable logic across various probabilities and timelines.

Market Dynamics and Predictions

Currently, XRP is priced around $1.75, representing a notable 8% decline over the past week and a 44% drop over the last year. Analysts regard this period as an extensive consolidation phase, stretching approximately 434 days.

Despite challenging technical indicators, including trading significantly below its 200-day moving average, there are positive developments such as nearly $92 million in net inflows for U.S. spot XRP ETFs in January, as reported by SoSoValue. Additionally, 42 new wallets holding a minimum of one million XRP have emerged since the start of 2026, suggesting accumulation by larger investors amidst weaker short-term trends.

Firms like 21Shares are projecting a base-case price target near $2.45 for 2026, contingent on sustained ETF inflows and adoption of Ripple’s stablecoin. This more rational outlook counters the extreme price forecasts often circulated within the XRP community.