Cardano (ADA) is currently trading around $0.34 after experiencing a 6% drop in the last day, and it is down approximately 5% over the past week. Since late 2025, the token has faced extended losses, and thus far this year, it has seen a decline of around 1%, mirroring the broader market trends.

Market sentiment is cautious, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which poses a risk to assets such as ADA.

Key Support Holds for Now

ADA is currently navigating a support area around $0.32 (marked as S1), which is being tested once more. It is positioned below the 21-week and 50-week moving averages, indicating a persistent downward trend.

📊 #ADA 1W Update!
Price sitting at S1 (~0.32), major decision level.
Below 21 & 50 MA = trend still heavy.
SRSI needs a cross to confirm momentum.
This chart needs proof, not prediction.

If you were trading this, what would invalidate your bias?
We’re debating it live inside… See more
— Crypto Crew University (@CryptoCrewU) Link

The Stochastic RSI has not yet indicated a bullish cross, suggesting no strong sign of momentum shift. Traders are on alert to see if the support will sustain or falter.

Current Market Dynamics

On the daily chart, ADA fluctuates within a downward channel. A price bounce from $0.33 is now facing resistance near the 20-day EMA ($0.37) and the 50-day SMA ($0.38). Clearance above these points could signal a potential recovery. Analyst Mr. CryptoCeek remarked,

“ADA bounced from 0.33 and is testing its moving averages — decision time.”

Failure at this level might lead the price back to the lower boundary of the channel around $0.33. A successful breakout, indicated by a close above the downtrend line, could target $0.50. Currently, the RSI is near 44, which represents weak momentum, but a push above 50 might signal a breakout if buyer activity increases.

Accumulation Trends

Data from Santiment reveals that substantial ADA holders (those with between 100,000 - 100 million tokens) have acquired more than 454 million ADA over the past two months, valued at about $160 million at current prices. In contrast, smaller holders (under 100 ADA) have divested 22,000 tokens in the same timeframe.

On January 29, ADA saw a net outflow of $3.36 million from exchanges, indicating that more tokens were withdrawn than deposited — a trend that often suggests users are transferring funds to wallets for safekeeping or staking.

ADA Inflow/Outflow
Source: CoinGlass

Additionally, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson hinted that significant updates might be on the horizon, as he referred to February as “a very crazy month,” although specifics were not disclosed. Potential occurrences may include governance upgrades, privacy testing, and the launch of ADA futures on the CME, expected on February 9.