Bitcoin's Bear Market: Are We Following 2014's Troubling Trends?
While Bitcoin shows resilience compared to past bear markets, experts warn of a potential downturn aligned with previous cycles.
Bitcoin’s current downturn appears to be performing better than previous cycles, but analysts are warning of a potential significant drop toward the end of 2026.
Bitcoin Outpacing Previous Bear Markets
Bitcoin has dropped 32% from its recent peak of over $126,000 in October 2025. Historically, this stage in past bear markets has shown greater declines, ranging from 43% to 66%. Current metrics suggest this bear market has been milder than in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Yet, concerns arise as historical trends indicate that prior stability often precedes sharp declines. Market analyst CryptoCon has observed that past cycles initially diverge before aligning closely as they approach their final bottom.
“This year’s Bitcoin bear market resembles past cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022… The downtrends seem to be getting shallower with each cycle.” – CryptoCon, January 28, 2026
According to analysis, projections indicate a price convergence around $35,000 by September 2026, a crucial threshold based on historical trends. If patterns hold, Bitcoin may hit lows between $28,000 and $17,000 between October and November 2026, coinciding with the predicted timing of the Halving Cycles Theory.
Market Dynamics and Recent Volatility
As of now, BTC’s price floats near $88,000 with a daily trading volume exceeding $49 billion. In the past 24 hours, prices dipped by 1.5%, contributing to a nearly 2.5% drop over the past week.
This heightened volatility saw BTC above $90,000 briefly, following Federal Reserve decisions, which resulted in liquidations impacting over 120,000 traders, totaling roughly $350 million in losses.
Mixed Signals from Analysts
As some analysts anticipate a market correction, others are highlighting long-term trends. Chiefy tweeted:
“If the 4-year cycle remains intact, expect $BTC to drop to $30,000 by February.”
Conversely, Kapoor Kshitiz noted that the Binance Reserve Cost indicates a bottoming level around $62,000, not yet reached since the ETF approval.
On-chain metrics show an increase in Bitcoin held at a loss, reminiscent of early signs from previous bear markets. While this isn’t definitive, it could signal the beginning of prolonged downward pressure.
Contrarily, long-term holders are showing signs of accumulation, indicating a potential setup for a continuation of the bullish trend rather than reaching a peak.
