Insights on Bitcoin’s Market Reconfiguration from On-Chain Data

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a narrow band below $79,000 as macroeconomic conditions favor crypto stability. Most digital assets are reflecting similar patterns, though experts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future.

A collaborative analysis by Coinbase and Glassnode highlights that Bitcoin is positioned more securely compared to numerous altcoins, many of which are still grappling with the effects of a dramatic selloff that occurred last October.

Healthier Outlook for Bitcoin in 2026

According to the research, the crypto ecosystem is making a healthier entry into 2026 after a wash-out of excessive leverage in the fourth quarter. Coinbase and Glassnode contend that various on-chain indicators support this assertion. Notably, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, adjusted for different entities, has shown a shift in investor sentiment from ‘Belief’ to ‘Anxiety’ post the October downturn, a sentiment that persisted through the last quarter.

Conversely, Bitcoin’s realized price continues to climb into early 2026, suggesting a rising overall cost basis in the market. Bitcoin’s spot price remains above this realized price, indicating that most holders are enjoying profits rather than encountering losses.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the current market price against the realized price, hovers around 1.5. This reflects that Bitcoin is being traded at approximately a 50% premium over its on-chain cost basis.

On-Chain Indicators

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit saw a significant drop. The report suggests that price levels between $80,000 and $85,000 might have represented an accumulation range for strategic investors. Changes in both dormant and active supply were also noted.

BTC supply that had moved in the last three months increased by 37% in the fourth quarter, while supply that had remained inactive for over a year decreased by 2%. This pattern indicates a high-velocity distribution phase in the market during this timeframe.

Furthermore, a decline in the Puell Multiple, which dropped to 0.9 during the fourth quarter, indicates that miners earned roughly 10% less than the average from the previous year.

Net long-term holder positions, along with fluctuations in exchange balances, suggested profit-taking activity between July and September; however, this behavior was less evident in the fourth quarter of 2025.