It’s hard to fathom that just a few months ago, Bitcoin was soaring, fueled by investor optimism about an impending bull market. Back then, Bitcoin was confidently trading in a high six-digit range, recently achieving an all-time high exceeding $126,000. Many predictions flourished, forecasting prices of $150,000 or even $200,000 by year-end based on past trends.

Recent Performances in Decline

However, harsh reality soon set in. Instead of reaching these optimistic targets, Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn around October 10/11, leading to a $19 billion loss in market value that triggered a negative trend that has continued ever since. In fact, Bitcoin ended 2025 with losses, marking a rare downturn in a post-halving year.

The start of 2026 carried renewed hopes for recovery, but Bitcoin stuttered mid-month, failing to maintain its position above $95,000 before it plunged considerable depths. It first dipped under the $90,000 mark, inciting ongoing losses which ultimately brought it to approximately $75,000, racking up billions in liquidations and a sizeable loss of $20,000 within a two-week span.

Recent data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin closed January down 10.17%, even with a slight rebound, marking the fourth consecutive monthly loss, echoing sentiments not experienced since November.

Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass

Is It Really a Bull Market?

Since October, crypto analysts remain divided on whether the current market phase qualifies as a bull market. However, the data above illustrates that Bitcoin is behaving more like it did during past bear market cycles. Notably, it last faced a series of four consecutive monthly losses at the close of 2018.

At that time, the price continually dropped to new lows until it eventually bottomed in January after six months of losses. If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin may still face further declines before commencing a notable recovery.

Nonetheless, the light at the end of the tunnel suggests that Bitcoin could anticipate a more favorable second and third quarter if history serves as a guide. Furthermore, analysts agree that the traditional four-year cycle has withered, with Bitcoin now following a different path.