Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised to benefit from fresh macroeconomic currents as recent US data presents a setup for a “reflation” trade.
Key Highlights:
- The US ISM PMI data for January breaks a year-long stretch of contraction throughout 2025.
- Analysts differ in their views on the influence this will exert on BTC price trends, despite prior correlations with PMI.
- A concealed bearish divergence between PMI and BTC/USD is currently emerging.
PMI Strengthens Argument for Final Bull Run in BTC
Recent analysis from Andre Dragosch at Bitwise indicates that US financial policy may be setting the stage for a rebound in Bitcoin prices. He noted that the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI Report revealed a surprise uptick.
ISM PMI Chart
US ISM PMI one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Dragosch emphasized that the PMI spike, arising from the surge in gold and silver prices, signals a potential for “reflation.”
“You’re naive if you think there’s no useful data for Bitcoin in the recent (precious-)metals rally.”
Furthermore, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted significant overlap between PMI and BTC pricing patterns, linking this to a broader risk-on market cycle.
“The ISM Manufacturing PMI is heading into its first over 50 reading in more than three years. This long ‘bear’ phase is concerning for both the business cycle and Bitcoin’s performance.”
Van de Poppe remarked that the recent BTC rally was primarily driven by ETF liquidity.
Divergence Between Bitcoin and PMI
Reflation aims to stimulate economic activity without triggering inflationary pressures. Currently, the US faces mixed signals regarding inflation from recent data.
As highlighted in earlier reports, fears of renewed inflation remain as 2026 progresses. Some analysts, however, urge caution regarding expecting respite for Bitcoin this year, citing the complexity of the economic indicators.
Titan of Crypto pointed out that past PMI surges typically aligned with Bitcoin bullish trends, but this time a bearish divergence prevails instead.
“Same indicator, different structure, probably different outcome.”
Bitcoin vs. PMI Chart
ISM PMI vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Titan of Crypto/X
